First off, I want to say that the Blog does not endorse gambling. But I have been on such a hot streak this year (except for Fantasy Football) that I had to share my skills on picking games against the spread. Plus I am bored on a Thursday before my run of Community/Parks and Rec/The Office/30 Rock is on television tonight.
This year I am a cool 52-33 (61%) against the spread for NFL games...a collective 3-5 (38%) in the playoffs, but we won't talk anymore about that. For all IRS agents out there, that terrific record had just allowed me to break even for the year ;)
So here we go for this weekend's conference championship games...
Jets v. Colts - Things for certain...Jets will run, we will hear several times that no one prepares for a game better than Colts #18 and Broadway Joe will be drunk hitting on some hot sideline reporter. Feeling the pressure to keep up with the Colts, Sanchez will have to sling the ball around a little more than usual which will lead to a few more mistakes by The Green. But if the Jets can run the ball with upstart rookie Shonn Greene--- all next year fantasy managers take note on this future RB star--- they might be able to keep the Colts offense off the field. But it may not matter, since the Colts won many games while losing the time of possession. Even though the Colts were not stout against the run in the regular season, they did hold a very good Ravens rushing attack down.
There is no QB in the league better against the blitz than Manning, which doesn't bold well for the Jets defense. He will distribute the ball evenly to all receivers and backs...and slowly pick New York apart. The Colts offense will be one-sided, slightly pass happy...but it won't matter.
And for a fun drinking game, take a shot everytime you hear the phrase "Revis Island" or anytime you see the cameras scan to any Manning family member in the crowd.
Colts -7.5 v Jets and the under (o/u) 39
Colts 24 Jets 14
Vikings v. Saints - This will be the more entertaining game of Sunday. I really don't like Favre (ex-Packer) or the Vikings (rival NFC North w/ my Bears)...and I would like to see the Saints in the Bowl -- even though we would have to hear how Papa Manning played for the Saints and now Peyton is playing the Saints, blah blah blah.
The only teams that have beat up on the Vikings are those with a great pass rush, not a staple of Saints D. They are opportunistic...which may be good since Favre can turn at any time and hand out interceptions at will. I think you will see a retro-early season Vikings team that will rely heavily on AP....uh AD....Adrian Peterson.....really? His initials are AP, but his nickname is AD for All Day.....kinda confusing....but I digress. I also see a big game out of ex-Gator Percy Harvin - that is if his migraines don't act up, to which I know he has some of that medicinal marijuana around to ease the pain.
The way to beat the Saints...make them one dimensional. Don't let them run -- which seems crazy that you want Brees to throw the ball. But the games that the Saints lost this year, they were not able to have a balanced attack.
This is going to be a close game...and I don't know if the Vikings will actually win but I like the points, especially if they stay at +3.5.
Vikings +3.5 v Saints and the over (o/u) 52.5
Vikings 30 Saints 28